Earlier this week, you might have seen a guest blog post from Baldwin County (Alabama) Commissioner Tucker Dorsey, who wrote about the potential effect of EPA’s new ozone rules on his community and others like his. Dorsey writes that by lowering ozone standards from 0.075 ppm to somewhere between 0.060 and 0.070 ppm, EPA will cause hundreds, if not thousands, of communities to deal with ozone non-attainment and the litany of economic hardships that classification entails. In fact, a new map released this week shows that 85% of American counties could end up in non-attainment.
You might have also seen this recent blog post about EPA’s new Cross State Air Pollution rule, a regulation that Texas Governor Rick Perry calls “heavy-handed and misguided.” The rule is intended to limit the effect of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) across state lines, but its ultimate effect will be to force the closure of coal-fired generation plants in a number of states. Consumers, as always, pay the price in terms of dollars and reliability.
What these two rules have in common is an assumption that EPA must take aggressive action to reduce emissions, whether to improve the public health or to change the conditions that the agency claims lead to global climate change. The common observer might assume from EPA’s proposals that emissions are on the rise. They might assume that SO2 and NOx are a growing problem for all of those who breathe American air. And yet the opposite is true.
EPA’s own statistics show that emission of SO2 fell 71% from 1980 to 2010, from a high of more than 17 million tons to just over 5 million tons. Emission of NOx fell almost as much, from a 1997 high of 6 million tons to just 2 million tons in 2010, for a total reduction of 66% during that nearly decade-and-a-half stretch. Looking at even more recent EPA figures, SO2 emission has been cut in half since 2005 and NOx has fallen by nearly as much at 45%!
Such progress is shocking. The reduction of these two major emissions from coal-fired power generation might signal, in the eyes of some viewers, a watershed trend in which America can continue to use abundant resources while drastically ameliorating environmental impacts. EPA, of course, doesn’t see it that way.
One of EPA’s key selling points for tightening ozone standards and implementing costly new Utility MACT rules aimed at coal-fired generation is a claim of enormous health benefits for Americans. With new ozone standards specifically, EPA claims that new smog rules will prevent thousands of emergency room visits from asthma attacks, as well as consequences from other bronchial conditions brought on by smog.
But does this analysis hold water? According to the National Center of Health Statistics, asthma prevalence increased nearly three-fold from 1980 to 2009, from just 3.1% of the US population to 8.2%. In other words, more people developed asthma as American air got cleaner. Not only do these figures make EPA’s claim that ozone rules will reduce asthma seem absurd, they call into question whether there is any correlation whatsoever between this debilitating condition and major emissions such as SO2 and NOx.
With EPA due to roll out new ozone rules next month, the debate over emissions is starting to get real. Just ask Wichita, Kansas, maybe the last community you would think of when discussing ozone problems. But recently, after the July 4th holiday, Wichita has found itself exceeding the EPA threshold of 0.075 ppm for ozone. The culprit? Fireworks.
That’s right. According to a report from the Wichita Eagle, “sparklers, firecrackers and flaming fountains of sparks helped push Wichita’s ozone levels past the Environmental Protection Agency standards on Independence Day.” That might seem humorous until you realize that if the city has four days above the ozone threshold, it will have to produce an ozone plan that will cost taxpayers and local businesses millions. With Independence Day and July 5th already exceeding the EPA standard, local officials fear that hot August and September days (which have historically produced 2 ozone days) will result in ozone non-attainment for the city.
Will there come a day when American communities no longer sponsor – or even allow – fireworks displays because of EPA ozone rules? It might sound like hyperbole, but you can bet that city planners in Wichita, Kansas, will think twice about next year. Or will U.S. lawmakers and regulators recognize and embrace the truth that major emissions have fallen drastically in recent decades and that new technologies, not new regulations, are the best way to create a cleaner future? Despite the statistical record on emissions, it is clear that EPA remains firmly committed to its position. It is also clear that a number of lawmakers are committed to forcing EPA to stand down. The debate is certain to be intense. Prepare for fireworks.
