U.S. Must Take Reliability Threats Seriously

Among domestic policy issues, electricity policy is unique in a number of ways. Consider that the availability of electricity, unlike fuel supplies, is almost exclusively under domestic control. International politics plays virtually no role in the price of power. Consider also that discussions about electricity are essentially conversations about physical systems. When we speak about the future of the American power grid, we are referring to a mechanical structure with real moving parts. Contrast this to more abstract policy references to a “healthcare safety net” or a “social welfare system.” The distinction should be clear.

Sadly, too many discussions about American energy policy fail to recognize this reality, pretending instead, for example, that intermittent power sources can provide continuous power or that degrading the nation’s base-load power supply (largely fossil-based today) won’t affect our power system’s ability to function as designed. The latter oversight is foolish and potentially dangerous, realizations with which Europeans, perhaps a decade ahead of the U.S. in terms of carbon policy and renewable experimentation, are beginning to come to grips.

A recent report conducted by the Emerging Risk Initiative, an effort by European risk officers, focuses on power reliability risks and reaches some troubling conclusions. The report, entitled Power Blackout Risks, finds that the risk of electrical grid failure is “generally underestimated” and that governments should “establish clear frameworks for the governance of power supply infrastructures.”

Although we are at greatest threat from blackouts due to heat waves or major storms, phenomena unlikely to change, the report also finds that the volatility of renewable power supplies also pose a new threat. Especially in places such as Europe with aggressive outlays of renewable power, the intermittency of solar and wind power can make grids more vulnerable to blackouts.

“Not only may a scarcity of electricity result in a power blackout,” the report states, “but an oversupply can also lead to grid instabilities as they alter the frequency within the network.”

Maintaining uninterrupted power supply is not just a matter of convenience. As the report finds, blackouts have huge ripples through economic systems, disrupting supply chains and halting production altogether in major industries. Blackouts can also put lives at risk, presenting immediate danger to vulnerable populations, in contrast to the vague “premature deaths” often cited by official cost-benefit analyses from U.S. government agencies. Records of nearly every major blackout in history bear witness to that unfortunate truth.

Europe is beginning to grapple with the consequences of two decades of energy policy that has made electricity more expensive and more unwieldy. As some in the U.S. argue that our nation should chart a similar course, we should heed reports like this and continue to ask whether new policies will make power more or less reliable. Reliability is far too important to overlook.