U.S. Will Lead the World in Shale Production by 2040

When it comes to the future of oil production, consumers worldwide have a reason to be optimistic. Especially consumers in the U.S. That’s because last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data showing the world’s tight oil production could more than double by 2040, increasing from 4.98 million to 10.36 million barrels per day. Tight oil, or shale oil, is a light crude oil found in shale deposits. Unlocking this oil increases supplies and helps sustain low gasoline prices.

Even more good news is that the United States is expected to contribute the vast majority of the tight oil increase.The U.S. is followed by other countries with significant tight oil deposits, as well as developed oil industries such as Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Among other factors that will lead to U.S. dominance of the tight oil landscape is the fact that the U.S. oil industry has shown to be even more resilient to current low oil prices than anticipated, laying a strong foundation for further growth.

According to EIA estimates, U.S. tight oil production will reach 7.1 million barrels per day, or about 75 percent of global production. This correlates with other previous EIA estimates that expected shale production to increase. Combined, shale and tight oil production will expand to 29 trillion cubic feet by 2020, or 70 percent of all U.S. natural gas production.

As PACE has reported before, the shale revolution has made the U.S. a worldwide leading producer of oil and natural gas. In fact, we’re on tract become a net oil exporter in just a few years for the first time since the 1950s. In addition to placing downward pressure on energy prices for customers, this development also enhances America’s energy security and creates jobs here at home.

“The data shows that U.S. is poised to lead the world in the production of tight oil. This is a testament not only to our abundance of natural resources, but to developments in technology that make unlocking this oil possible,” says PACE Executive Director. “If Washington, DC, will simply allow this shale revolution to continue, both consumers and the economy will see rich benefits in terms of prices and jobs.”